Thursday, October 31, 2013

Can Intel Continue to Soar Higher?

With shares of Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) trading around $23, is INTC an OUTPERFORM, WAIT AND SEE or STAY AWAY? Let's analyze the stock with the relevant sections of our CHEAT SHEET investing framework:

T = Trends for a Stock’s Movement

Intel designs, manufactures, and sells integrated digital technology platforms worldwide. The company operates through PC Client Group, Data Center Group, Other Intel Architecture, Software and Services, and All Other segments. It offers microprocessors, chipset, system-on-chip products, wired network connectivity products, and wireless connectivity products. The company also provides mobile phone components comprising of baseband processors, radio frequency transceivers, and power management integrated circuits and mobile phone platforms, such as Bluetooth wireless technology. In addition, it offers endpoint security, network and content security, risk and compliance, and consumer and mobile security software products for consumer, mobile, and corporate environments to protect systems from malicious virus attacks, as well as loss of data. Processors are essential pieces of hardware for just about any technology or machinery that operates in virtually every industry. So long as technology keeps improving, and it will, Intel will continue to provide innovative products to developed and developing countries and economies, worldwide. The variety of products offered by Intel make it a major player in the technology industry that will surely see increased profits well into the future.

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T = Technicals on the Stock Chart are Strong

Intel stock has been a part of a price range extend back to early 2001. The stock is at the middle of this range and is looking at heading towards the top end, if not higher. Analyzing the price trend and its strength can be done using key simple moving averages. What are the key moving averages? The 50-day (pink), 100-day (blue), and 200-day (yellow) simple moving averages. As seen in the daily price chart below, Intel is trading above its rising key averages which signal neutral to bullish price action in the near-term.

INTC

(Source: Thinkorswim)

Taking a look at the implied volatility (red) and implied volatility skew levels of Intel options may help determine if investors are bullish, neutral, or bearish.

Implied Volatility (IV)

30-Day IV Percentile

90-Day IV Percentile

Intel Options

22%

13%

14%

What does this mean? This means that investors or traders are buying a very small amount of call and put options contracts, as compared to the last 30 and 90 trading days.

Put IV Skew

Call IV Skew

May Options

Flat

Average

June Options

Flat

Average

As of today, there is an average demand from call buyers or sellers and low demand by put buyers or high demand by put sellers, all neutral to bullish over the next two months. To summarize, investors are buying a very small amount of call and put option contracts and are leaning neutral to bullish over the next two months.

On the next page, let’s take a look at the earnings and revenue growth rates and the conclusion…

E = Earnings Are Decreasing Quarter-Over-Quarter

Rising stock prices are often strongly correlated with rising earnings and revenue growth rates. Also, the last four quarterly earnings announcement reactions help gauge investor sentiment on Intel’s stock. What do the last four quarterly earnings and revenue growth (Y-O-Y) figures for Intel look like and more importantly, how did the markets like these numbers?

2013 Q1

2012 Q4

2012 Q3

2012 Q2

Earnings Growth (Y-O-Y)

-24.53%

-24.40%

-10.77%

0%

Revenue Growth (Y-O-Y)

-2.56%

-2.95%

-5.41%

3.61%

Earnings Reaction

0.04%

-6.3%

-2.5%

3.27%

Intel has seen mostly decreasing earnings and revenue figures over the last four quarters. From these figures, the markets have had mixed feelings about Intel’s recent earnings announcements.

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P = Excellent Relative Performance Versus Peers and Sector

How has Intel stock done relative to its peers, Advanced Micro Devices (NYSE:AMD), Texas Instruments (NASDAQ:TXN), Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA), and sector?

Intel

AMD

Texas Instruments

Nvidia

Sector

Year-to-Date Return

14.67%

12.71%

17.14%

9.79%

13.70%

Intel has been a relative performance leader, year-to-date.

Conclusion

Intel provides technology products that serve a variety of functions to a wide range of companies operating in diverse industry. The stock has been in a trading range for most of the last decade and looks to be headed towards the top end, if not higher. Earnings and revenue numbers have sent mixed signals to investors who have not been convinced about Intel’s earnings reports. Relative to its peers and sector, Intel has been one of the year-to-date performance leaders. Look for Intel to continue to OUTPERFORM.

Tuesday, October 29, 2013

Retail Sales In September: Conspicuous Correlation

Today, the U.S. Census Bureau released its latest nominal read of retail sales for September, showing a decrease of 0.1% from August, and a gain of 3.2% on a year-over-year basis on an aggregate of all items including food, fuel and healthcare services.

Nominal 'discretionary' retail sales including home furnishings, home garden and building materials, consumer electronics and department store sales also declined 0.1% from August, but still increased 2.06% above the level seen in September 2012; while, adjusting for inflation, 'real' discretionary retail sales declined 0.1% on the month and increased 1.05% since September 2012.

On a 'nominal' basis, there had appeared to be 'rough correlation' between strong home value appreciation and strong retail spending preceding the housing bust and an even stronger correlation when home values started to decline.

The following chart shows the year-over-year change to nominal discretionary retail sales and the year-over-year change to nominal the S&P/Case-Shiller Composite home price index since 1993 and since 2000.

As you can see there is, at the very least, a coincidental change to home values and consumer spending during the boom and then the bust, but as home values have continued to decline, retail spending has remained low but has not continued to consistently contract.

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Looking at the chart below, adjusted for inflation (CPI for retail sales, CPI 'less shelter' for S&P/Case-Shiller Composite) the 'rough correlation' between the year-! over-year change to the 'discretionary' retail sales series and the year-over-year S&P/Case-Shiller Composite series seems now even more significant.

Source: Retail Sales In September: Conspicuous Correlation

Monday, October 28, 2013

Is Exxon Mobil a Good Investment In Any Environment?

With shares of Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM) trading at around $91.45, is XOM an OUTPERFORM, WAIT AND SEE or STAY AWAY? Let's analyze the stock with the relevant sections of our CHEAT SHEET investing framework:

C = Catalyst for the Stock's Movement

Exxon Mobil has been one of the steadiest investments throughout the broader market since the 1970s. The current size of the company is nearly incomprehensible.

Savvy investors love Exxon Mobil for many reasons. One simple reason is that its size makes it resilient to market corrections. Will there be downswings? Of course. But those savvy investors are well aware that Exxon Mobil will always bounce back. Therefore, even if the stock gets slammed, it's an opportunity to add to a position. Theoretically, someone could only trade Exxon Mobil through his or her entire trading career and do well. When times are good, there isn't much to do but sit back and enjoy. The 2.80% yield will widen that smile a little more when the stock is appreciating. When times are bad, the only requirement for success is patience and the ability to add to a position. In some cases, there might be a great deal of patience required. However, eventually, that individual's position in the stock will increase, which means even brighter days ahead than during the last run-up. It sounds like a nice life, but very few people have the guts to implement this game plan.

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For those who aren't familiar with Exxon Mobil, here are just a few positives:

Profit margin of 10.86% ROE of 28.26% Enormous operating cash flow of $50.48 billion Dividend yield of 2.80% Superb historical stock performance Quality debt management Unfathomable profits Excellent capital allocation Analysts love the stock: 7 Buy, 16 Hold, 1 Sell Trading at only 9 times earnings Resiliency in bear markets Superior technology and planning compared to peers Increasing international demand thanks to emerging markets Developed largest natural gas field in the world 89% of employees approve of CEO Rex W. Tillerson

What more could investors possibly want?

Believe it or not, there are a couple of negatives. One, domestic demand is weak. Two, revenue declined in 2012. Revenue also declined last quarter on a year-over-year basis. Is global demand actually weakening? And what will happen to global markets once Ben Bernanke takes his foot off the gas?

These are concerns, but Exxon Mobil isn't a high-growth technology stock trading at over 100 times earnings. In other words, Exxon Mobil isn't for momentum traders looking to make a quick buck. Exxon Mobil is a long-term investment for those with patience. The point here is that Exxon Mobil is a long-term winner.

The chart below compares fundamentals for Exxon Mobil Corporation, BP plc (NYSE:BP), and Chevron Corporation (NYSE:CVX)

XOM BP CVX
Trailing P/E 9.28 6.05 9.19
Forward P/E 11.08 7.45 9.74
Profit Margin 10.86% 6.05% 11.89%
ROE 28.26% 18.32% 19.47%
Operating Cash Flow 50.48B 20.96B 36.14B
Dividend Yield 2.80% 5.00% 3.30%
Short Position 1.00% N/A 1.00%

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Let's take a look at some more important numbers prior to forming an opinion on this stock.

T = Technicals Are Strong

Exxon Mobil has been a steady performer over the past three years.

1 Month Year-To-Date 1 Year 3 Year
XOM 1.40% 6.80% 16.76% 65.21%
BP -1.04% 5.82% 18.17% 29.00%
CVX -0.54% 14.24% 25.85% 88.13%

At $91.45, Exxon Mobil is trading above its averages.

50-Day SMA 90.28
200-Day SMA 89.24

E = Equity to Debt Ratio Is Strong

The debt-to-equity ratio for Exxon Mobil is stronger than the industry average of 0.30.

Debt-To-Equity Cash Long-Term Debt
XOM 0.08 6.21B 13.41B
BP 0.35 28.28B 46.42B
CVX 0.10 19.05B 14.14B

E = Earnings Have Been Excellent

Investors who want to see large and steady profits head straight to Exxon Mobil.

Fiscal Year 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Revenue ($) in millions 477,359 310,586 383,221 486,429 482,295
Diluted EPS ($) 8.69 3.98 6.22 8.42 9.70

Looking at the last quarter on a year-over-year basis, revenue declined and earnings improved.

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Quarter Mar. 31, 2012 Jun. 30, 2012 Sep. 30, 2012 Dec. 31, 2012 Mar. 31, 2013
Revenue ($) in millions 124,053 127,363 115,710 115,173 108,807
Diluted EPS ($) 2.00 3.41 2.09 2.20 2.12

Now let's take a look at the next page for the Trends and Conclusion. Is this stock an OUTPERFORM, a WAIT AND SEE, or a STAY AWAY?

Conclusion

This article has been heavy on optimism, but please keep in mind that this pertains to the long haul. A deflationary environment is a possibility in the coming years. If this type of environment presents itself, then Exxon Mobil will have to deal with some challenging times. However, as hinted at several times earlier, Exxon Mobil is a long-term OUTPERFORM.

Sunday, October 27, 2013

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Credit were credit is due ��Ingersoll-Rand (NYSE:IR) has been in a seemingly never-ending state of restructuring since 2008, but management seems to be hitting its marks recently. Leaner manufacturing, smarter sourcing, a refreshed product line up and solid pricing all seem to be leading to the improved results that have been expected for some time now. Although these shares still don't look particularly cheap, Ingersoll-Rand is heavily leveraged to a recovery in residential housing and commercial construction and continued outperformance on margin targets could very well push the shares higher.

Nothing To Apologize For This Time
Ingersoll-Rand didn't report the strongest quarter among the industrial conglomerates, but it was hardly a quarter to regret. Revenue rose 3% on an organic basis, which was just slightly better than the sell-side expected. Growth was led by the Residential business (up about 7% organically), while the much larger Climate business improved about 5%. Industrial and Security were both weak, though, and down about 3% from last year.

Top 5 Heal Care Stocks To Watch Right Now: Westport Innovations Inc(WPRT)

Westport Innovations Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the provision of low-emission engine and fuel system technologies that enable light, medium, heavy-duty, and high-horsepower petroleum-based fuel engines to use natural gas and alternative fuels. The company designs, produces, and sells alternative fuel engines, systems, and components for automotive and industrial markets. It also designs, engineers, and produces natural gas engines for the urban buses, refuse collection trucks, and conventional trucks and tractors, as well as for specialty vehicles. In addition, the company offers 15 litre natural gas engines for the heavy-duty trucking market, as well as is involved in the engineering, design, and marketing of natural gas-enabling technology for the heavy-duty diesel engine and truck market. Westport Innovations Inc. was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Daniel Ferry]

    Over the past week, shares of natural gas engine designer Westport Innovations's (NASDAQ: WPRT  ) have jumped by more than 20%. This small, forward-thinking company is known to be a very volatile stock: It's still in high-growth mode and hasn't yet turned a profit, so the stock price is based more on expectations and emotions than earnings. The company's future depends on more widespread adoption of the engines it designs and builds critical components and systems for, most of which are powered primarily by natural gas, a cleaner, cheaper substitute for gasoline or diesel. So what happened over the past week that got investors so bullish on Westport Innovation's future?

  • [By Neha Chamaria]

    Natural gas and international markets
    PACCAR already dominates the natural-gas-powered heavy-duty truck market in the U.S. with a 40% share, thanks to its long-standing relationship with Cummins and Westport Innovations (NASDAQ: WPRT  ) . As one of Cummins' prominent customers, PACCAR is one of the first to adopt Cummins-Westport engines for its truck models. So any rise in Westport's engine shipments means increasing demand for natural-gas vehicles, which bodes well for PACCAR.

  • [By Daniel Miller]

    Cummins is developing its own natural gas engines, and in April it began shipping a large LNG engine that can make long-haul trucking a real possibility. Cummins also has a joint venture with Westport Innovations (NASDAQ: WPRT  ) which specializes in building natural gas engines. There's room for both in the market, and together they will set the bar very high for competitors looking to get a piece of the growing pie. If truck fleets begin to switch to LNG engines it will pay off handsomely for Cummins and its investors.

Top 5 Heal Care Stocks To Watch Right Now: Mission Vly Bcp Ca(MVLY.OB)

Mission Valley Bancorp operates as the holding company for Mission Valley Bank that provides a range of banking services to individual and corporate customers in the United States. The company?s deposit products include checking accounts, certificates of deposits, health savings accounts, individual retirement accounts, money market accounts, savings accounts, and time deposits. Its loan portfolio comprises personal, automobile, home equity, commercial real estate, equipment, small business administration, and term loans. The company also offers apartment financing, auto and truck financing, accounts receivable financing, leasing, letters of credit, corporate credit cards, and lines of credit. In addition, it provides online banking, account reconciliation, check image, collection, deposit courier, electronic tax payment, image statement, merchant bankcard, night drop, notary, payroll, safe deposit box, and zero balance accounting services, as well as cashier?s checks, t ravelers checks, credit cards, and debit and ATM cards. Further, the company offers financial planning and investment services in the areas of investments, estate plans, retirement plans, and insurance. It operates three branches in Sun Valley, Valencia, and the Centre Pointe area of Santa Clarita, California. The company was founded in 2001 and is headquartered in Sun Valley, California.

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Mining Projects Group Limited operates as a resource exploration and investment company. The company principally explores for gold and base metal mineralization in Western Australia. It also invests in a portfolio of listed investments and unlisted equities. The company was formerly known as Yamarna Goldfields Limited and changed its name to Mining Projects Group Limited in July 2006. Mining Projects Group Limited is based in Armadale, Australia.

Top 5 Heal Care Stocks To Watch Right Now: ConocoPhillips(COP)

ConocoPhillips operates as an integrated energy company worldwide. The company?s Exploration and Production (E&P) segment explores for, produces, transports, and markets crude oil, bitumen, natural gas, liquefied natural gas, and natural gas liquids. Its Midstream segment gathers, processes, and markets natural gas; and fractionates and markets natural gas liquids in the United States and Trinidad. The company?s Refining and Marketing (R&M) segment purchases, refines, markets, and transports crude oil and petroleum products, such as gasolines, distillates, and aviation fuels. Its Chemicals segment manufactures and markets petrochemicals and plastics. This segment offers olefins and polyolefins, including ethylene, propylene, and other olefin products; aromatics products, such as benzene, styrene, paraxylene, and cyclohexane, as well as polystyrene and styrene-butadiene copolymers; and various specialty chemical products comprising organosulfur chemicals, solvents, catalyst s, drilling chemicals, mining chemicals, and engineering plastics and compounds. The company?s Emerging Businesses segment develops new technologies and businesses. It focuses on power generation; and technologies related to conventional and nonconventional hydrocarbon recovery, refining, alternative energy, biofuels, and the environment. This segment also offers E-Gas, a gasification technology producing high-value synthetic gas. ConocoPhillips was founded in 1917 and is based in Houston, Texas.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Arjun Sreekumar]

    Similarly, ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP  ) recently said it is suspending plans to drill in Alaskan waters in 2014 because of regulatory, permitting, and other uncertainties, while Statoil (NYSE: STO  ) announced last year that it will postpone drilling in the American Arctic until 2015. To be sure, these companies have good reasons to be hesitant in their Arctic ambitions.

Top 5 Heal Care Stocks To Watch Right Now: Gaming Partners International Corporation(GPIC)

Gaming Partners International Corporation engages in the manufacture and supply of casino table game equipment worldwide. The company offers gaming chips, such as american-style casino chips comprising injection molded chips, thermo-compression molded chips, and sublimation chips; and European-style casino chips, including jetons and plaques. It also provides playing cards; table layouts; gaming furniture consisting of tables, bases, and pit podiums; and table game accessories, such as roulette reader boards, foot rails, chip trays, drop boxes, shoes, cut cards, dice sticks, lammers, markers, buttons, and air rail system ventilation devices, as well as dice. In addition, the company offers low and high frequency RFID readers and antennas, and other products used with casino table games, such as blackjack, poker, baccarat, craps, and roulette. Further, it provides themed products for customers to promote special events, including sporting events, conventions, holidays, casi no anniversaries, and premier entertainment events. The company sells its products directly to end-users, as well as through distributors under the Paulson, Bourgogne et Grasset, and Bud Jones brand names. Gaming Partners International Corporation was founded in 1963 and is headquartered in Las Vegas, Nevada.

Saturday, October 26, 2013

Don't Get Too Worked Up Over Landauer's Earnings

Although business headlines still tout earnings numbers, many investors have moved past net earnings as a measure of a company's economic output. That's because earnings are very often less trustworthy than cash flow, since earnings are more open to manipulation based on dubious judgment calls.

Earnings' unreliability is one of the reasons Foolish investors often flip straight past the income statement to check the cash flow statement. In general, by taking a close look at the cash moving in and out of the business, you can better understand whether the last batch of earnings brought money into the company, or merely disguised a cash gusher with a pretty headline.

Calling all cash flows
When you are trying to buy the market's best stocks, it's worth checking up on your companies' free cash flow once a quarter or so, to see whether it bears any relationship to the net income in the headlines. That's what we do with this series. Today, we're checking in on Landauer (NYSE: LDR  ) , whose recent revenue and earnings are plotted below.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Data is current as of last fully reported fiscal quarter. Dollar values in millions. FCF = free cash flow. FY = fiscal year. TTM = trailing 12 months.

Over the past 12 months, Landauer generated $12.1 million cash while it booked net income of $17.3 million. That means it turned 8.1% of its revenue into FCF. That sounds OK. However, FCF is less than net income. Ideally, we'd like to see the opposite.

All cash is not equal
Unfortunately, the cash flow statement isn't immune from nonsense, either. That's why it pays to take a close look at the components of cash flow from operations, to make sure that the cash flows are of high quality. What does that mean? To me, it means they need to be real and replicable in the upcoming quarters, rather than being offset by continual cash outflows that don't appear on the income statement (such as major capital expenditures).

For instance, cash flow based on cash net income and adjustments for non-cash income-statement expenses (like depreciation) is generally favorable. An increase in cash flow based on stiffing your suppliers (by increasing accounts payable for the short term) or shortchanging Uncle Sam on taxes will come back to bite investors later. The same goes for decreasing accounts receivable; this is good to see, but it's ordinary in recessionary times, and you can only increase collections so much. Finally, adding stock-based compensation expense back to cash flows is questionable when a company hands out a lot of equity to employees and uses cash in later periods to buy back those shares.

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So how does the cash flow at Landauer look? Take a peek at the chart below, which flags questionable cash flow sources with a red bar.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Data is current as of last fully reported fiscal quarter. Dollar values in millions. TTM = trailing 12 months.

When I say "questionable cash flow sources," I mean items such as changes in taxes payable, tax benefits from stock options, and asset sales, among others. That's not to say that companies booking these as sources of cash flow are weak, or are engaging in any sort of wrongdoing, or that everything that comes up questionable in my graph is automatically bad news. But whenever a company is getting more than, say, 10% of its cash from operations from these dubious sources, investors ought to make sure to refer to the filings and dig in.

With 28.6% of operating cash flow coming from questionable sources, Landauer investors should take a closer look at the underlying numbers. Within the questionable cash flow figure plotted in the TTM period above, stock-based compensation and related tax benefits provided the biggest boost, at 11.6% of cash flow from operations. Overall, the biggest drag on FCF came from capital expenditures, which consumed 50.6% of cash from operations. Landauer investors may also want to keep an eye on accounts receivable, because the TTM change is 2.7 times greater than the average swing over the past 5 fiscal years.

A Foolish final thought
Most investors don't keep tabs on their companies' cash flow. I think that's a mistake. If you take the time to read past the headlines and crack a filing now and then, you're in a much better position to spot potential trouble early. Better yet, you'll improve your odds of finding the underappreciated home-run stocks that provide the market's best returns.

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Friday, October 25, 2013

Memo To Intel: Apple A7 Chip Is No Gimmick

On September 10, 2013, Apple (AAPL) brought its latest iPhone 5S to market. Immediately upon launch, hipsters, teenage girls, and celebrities were abuzz with chatter regarding the merits of new iOS 7 features, which were made complete with fingerprint recognition and Touch ID button. Meanwhile, technology geeks were eagerly deconstructing the potential of the A7 processor driving this latest iPhone installment. The A7 is unofficially hailed as the first 64-bit chip to be installed within a consumer smart phone. Competitors, such as Anand Chandrasekher, former Chief Marketing Officer at Qualcomm (QCOM), immediately circled the wagons to haughtily dismiss the A7 chip as a "marketing gimmick." According to Chandrasekher's thesis, the consumer smart phone market will have no need to leverage the full capacity of a 64-bit chip. Interestingly, Qualcomm promptly changed Chandrasekher's role at the company following said commentary.

Enter Intel (INTC), which in actuality, stands to lose the most from the expansion of this A7 chip rollout. Firstly, Intel is desperate to emerge as a real player within the mobile chip market. Secondly, Apple has already marketed its A7 processor as "desktop class." Going forward, it would appear inevitable that the advances of A-Series chip technologies threaten and replace Intel's current position as supplier to the Mac, at the same time that the desktop computer market slogs through secular decline. The Apple A7 is but an opening salvo declaring this latest war between awkward Silicon Valley rivals and partners. Certainly, Apple "haters" are well aware of the fact that BlackBerry executives once ripped the original iPhone as "amateur hour." Intel is dead money.

Apple A7 Specifications

The Apple A7 64-bit system-on-a-chip (SoC) line is based upon ARM (ARMH) architecture. Apple has designed its 1.3 GHz dual-core Cyclone CPU around the ARMv8-A instruction set. In terms of battery power, the A7 can run the iPhone 5S for 10 ! hours worth of 3G talk-time, and for 250 hours during stand-by mode. The Apple A7 chip is produced through a 28 nm manufacturing process at Samsung (SSNLF). The A7 gate pitch, or distance between each transistor, is now 114 nm, in comparison to the 123 nm mark of the A6 chip. Apple executives claim that the A7 is twice is fast as its A6 predecessor.

The ARM business model alongside the emergence of Apple as a chip designer now threatens Intel's profitability within the mobile space. ARM collects royalty payments off chips manufactured according to its architecture and intellectual property. According to the Company Overview, ARM based technology has already been installed within more than 95% of all global smart phones. Qualcomm and Apple are the most powerful component parts of the ARM ecosystem. Qualcomm is most notable for its Snapdragon 800 chips that are packaged with a 2.3 GHz Quad Krait CPU. The Snapdragon is the go-to engine to drive premium Android, BlackBerry (BBRY), and Windows handsets.

Former Intel CEO Paul Otellini highlighted his company's "mobile edge," within his 2012 letter to shareholders. At the time, Otellini projected that Intel would be ready to ship 22nm process Atom chips by the end up 2013, before stepping up the manufacturing technology to 14nm through 2014. Last May, Brian Krzanich took up this CEO mantle, and Intel assembly mechanics are now one step ahead of what Apple is now paying for out of Samsung. Still, the Apple A7 chip measures up quite favorably to the Intel Z3700, or Bay Trail, line. One review out of Anandtech benchmarked the Apple iPhone 5 and A7 processor at 514, while awarding a score of 513 to an Intel Bay Trail device running Windows 8.1.

Intel Mobile Product Line Up

Smartphones with Intel Inside include the bargain bin Acer Liquid C1, Motorola RAZR I, and Safaricom Yolo, which are currently available in Thailand, Brazil, Mexico, and Kenya. On October 2, 2013, Lenovo (LNVGF) announced that it was actually dumping Intel Atom,! in favor! of Qualcomm chips, to power its K900 handsets. The week prior, on August 29, 2013, Virtual Matrix ran a battery life test pitting the Lenovo K900, then powered with an Intel Atom chip, against the Google Nexus 4 and its Snapdragon technology. The Snapdragon chip significantly outperformed the Intel offering, 380 minutes to 170 minutes, in terms of battery life, while running Google (GOOG) Maps. The Intel tablet lineup is largely associated with Windows 8.1. Bay Trail tablets are expected to begin at $350 heading into this holiday season. The Intel Haswell processor powers the up-market Surface Pro 2 tablet, which retails for between $899 and $1,799. The Surface Pro 2 is in direct competition with both the Apple iPad and MacBook Pro at this price point.

On October 4, 2013, research firm comScore released its report for August 2013 U.S. smartphone subscriber market share. The report actually presented averages of data taken from the June 2013 to August 2013 calendar quarter. The comScore information did confirm that Intel has largely been shut out of the mobile market. If anything, the "marketing gimmick" that is the A7 chip will draw sales and attention towards Apple. During this latest quarter, Android and iOS systems operated respective 52.4% and 39.2% shares of the U.S. smartphone subscriber market. Apple actually tacked on 1.5% in additional market share upon a quarter-to-quarter basis through the summer months.

A calendar Q2 2013 tablet shipment report out of IDC presented Windows tablet results that Microsoft critics have already ripped as "pathetic" and "disastrous." According to IDC, the Windows operating system accounted for 2 million in shipments during the second calendar quarter of 2013. This performance represented 4.5% of the tablet market. For the sake of comparison, Apple iOS generated 14.6 million shipments for a 32.5% share of the tablet market, according to unit shipments. Taken together, iOS and Android operating systems have dominated betwee! n 95% and! 98% of the tablet market over the past two years. Going forward, improvements upon the A-Series chips will only crowd out Intel further outside of solid mobile profits.

The Bottom Line

On July 24, 2013, Apple released its Q3 2013 financial report for the period ended June 29, 2013. The Mac generated $15.9 billion in revenue upon 11.8 million units sold during the first nine months of this fiscal 2013. In terms of unit shipments, Mac sales have declined by 11% through the past three quarters, upon a year-over-year basis. Going forward, a transition out of Intel Haswell and into A-Series chips may reenergize excitement for the Mac line while also slashing costs of goods sold. Apple engineers will build out their moat larger at the expense of Intel.

Intel typically classifies its businesses according to PC Client, Data Center, Software and Services, and Other Intel Architecture operating segments. The Other Intel Architecture umbrella category does include smartphone, tablet, and netbook chip sales. PC Client Group sales generally account for two-thirds of total net revenue at Intel. Alternatively, Other Intel Architecture has, on average, generated a mere 8% of annual Intel revenue over the past three fiscal years that do largely coincide with calendar years at the company. All recent data out of research firm Gartner have confirmed the secular contraction of the personal computer market. According to Gartner, global PC shipments declined by 8.6% through calendar Q3 2013, upon a year-over-year basis.

On October 24, 2013, Intel stock closed out the trading session at $23.78 per share. This performance did calculate out to roughly $120 billion in market capitalization. Intel may close out this 2013 year with $10 billion in earnings on the books, which would mean that the stock is now trading for 12 times earnings. This valuation is too high a price to pay for a business lacking prospects for real growth. Going forward, Intel share prices will stagnate, while the company returns larg! er and la! rger percentages of capital back to investors in the form of stock buy backs and dividends. Intel deserves a sell rating.

Source: Memo To Intel: Apple A7 Chip Is No Gimmick

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. (More...)

Thursday, October 24, 2013

Top 5 Financial Companies For 2014

Morgan Stanley (MS) is in the market today with a new preferred stock issue.

Morgan Stanley, a bank holding company, provides diversified financial services on a worldwide basis. The Company operates a global securities business which serves individual and institutional investors and investment banking clients. Morgan Stanley also operates a global asset management business.

The details are (from the prospectus):

IssuerMorgan Stanley Size$250,000,000 Series/TickerSeries E - MSPrE (expected) RatingBa3/BB+/BB/BBB (Moody's/S&P/Fitch/DBRS)- expected Rate TypeFixed to float Rate7% plus (closer to 7.25%). Floats after 10/15/2023 at 3mo LIBOR + MaturityPerpetual Optional Redemption10/15/2023 CumulativeNO Tax TreatmentDRD/QDI

In order to discern if there is value (and pricing) a look at their existing preferreds is in order:

Top 5 Financial Companies For 2014: Peoples Federal Bancshares Inc.(PEOP)

Peoples Federal Bancshares, Inc. operates as a holding company for Peoples Federal Savings Bank that provides financial services to individuals and small businesses. The company?s deposit accounts include passbook and statement savings, certificates of deposit, money market, commercial and regular checking, NOW, and individual retirement accounts. It offers one- to four-family residential mortgage, home equity and lines of credit, multi-family real estate, commercial real estate, construction, consumer, and commercial loans. It operates six banking offices located in Brighton, Allston, West Roxbury, Jamaica Plain, Brookline and Norwood. The company was founded in 1888 and is based in Brighton, Massachusetts.

Top 5 Financial Companies For 2014: Singapore Reinsurance Cor Ltd (S49.SI)

Singapore Reinsurance Corporation Limited operates as a general reinsurance company. It underwrites property, liability, miscellaneous accident, and marine classes on a facultative and treaty basis. The company, through its subsidiaries, also provides various services, including managing the GIA Records Management Centre (GIARMC); providing and supporting the Web-based e-filing system for non-injury motor accident reporting at GIARMC; the Agents' Registration and Continuous Professional Development Management System, a Web- based agents' information system, which is accessible by the General Insurance Association of Singapore, training providers, insurers, and insurance agents; and information technology (IT) systems for insurers, reinsurers, and insurance intermediaries. It also offers IT software development and consultancy services, such as turnkey and systems integration services to businesses; and software solutions to the insurance industry, which include Broker 2000 and Millennium Broker Assistant for the professional insurance intermediaries, and Integrated Reinsurance InfoSystem for the professional reinsurers. In addition, the company provides advertising and consultancy services, such as design, copy-writing, media planning, and the production and printing of promotional media, as well as investment, business, management, international trade, property, human and education, and insurance and marine consultancy services. Further, the company publishes magazines, books, and other publications, as well as organizes conferences and insurance training courses to meet the information needs of insurance and reinsurance practitioners in Asia. Singapore Reinsurance Corporation operates in Singapore, Malaysia, and the other Asian countries. The company was founded in 1973 and is headquartered in Singapore, Singapore.

Top High Tech Stocks To Buy For 2014: Bank of America Corporation(BAC)

Bank of America Corporation, a financial holding company, provides banking and nonbanking financial services and products to individuals, small- and middle-market businesses, large corporations, and governments in the United States and internationally. The company?s Deposits segment generates savings accounts, money market savings accounts, certificate of deposits, and checking accounts; and Global Card Services segment provides the U.S. consumer and business card, consumer lending, international card and debit card services. Its Home Loans & Insurance segment offers consumer real estate products and services, including mortgage loans, reverse mortgages, home equity lines of credit, and home equity loans. It also provides property, disability, and credit insurance. The company?s Global Commercial Banking segment offers lending products, including commercial loans and commitment facilities, real estate lending, leasing, trade finance, short-term credit, asset-based lending, and indirect consumer loans; and capital management and treasury solutions, such as treasury management, foreign exchange, and short-term investing options. Its Global Banking & Markets segment provides financial products, advisory services, settlement, and custody services; debt and equity underwriting and distribution, merger-related advisory services, and risk management products; and integrated working capital management and treasury solutions. The company?s Global Wealth & Investment Management segment offers investment and brokerage services, estate management, financial planning services, fiduciary management, credit and banking expertise, and asset management products. Bank of America Corporation serves customers through a network of approximately 5,900 banking centers and 18,000 automated teller machines. It was formerly known as NationsBank Corporation and changed its name on October 1, 1998. Bank of America Corporation was founded in 1874 and is based in Charlott e, North Carolina.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By John Maxfield]

    So why does this matter? At least in the banking space, regional economic figures like these can make a big difference for the success or failure of lenders. It goes a long way, for instance, in explaining the problems at SunTrust Banks (NYSE: STI  ) , which is based in Georgia, Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC  ) , which assumed Wachovia's heavy Florida presence, and Bank of America (NYSE: BAC  ) , which has a significant footprint in California that was added to via its purchase of Countrywide Financial.

Top 5 Financial Companies For 2014: Suffolk Bancorp(SUBK)

Suffolk Bancorp operates as the holding company for Suffolk County National Bank, a national-chartered commercial bank that provides domestic, retail, and commercial banking services, as well as trust services in Suffolk County, New York. The company offers various deposit products consisting of checking accounts, savings accounts, time and savings certificates, money market accounts, negotiable-order-of-withdrawal accounts, holiday club accounts, and individual retirement accounts. It also provides various secured and unsecured loans, including commercial loans to individuals, partnerships, and corporations; agricultural loans to farmers; installment loans to finance small businesses; automobile loans; and home equity and real estate mortgage loans. In addition, the company offers safe deposit boxes, and trust and estate services; sells mutual funds and annuities; and maintains a master pension plan for self-employed individuals? participation. As of December 31, 2010, i t operated 30 full-service offices in Suffolk County, New York. Suffolk Bancorp was founded in 1890 and is headquartered in Riverhead, New York.

Top 5 Financial Companies For 2014: Renasant Corporation(RNST)

Renasant Corporation operates as the bank holding company for the Renasant Bank that provides various financial and insurance services to retail and commercial customers. The company offers checking accounts, money market accounts, savings accounts, certificates of deposit, time deposits, individual retirement accounts, and health savings accounts. It also provides commercial, financial, and agricultural loans; construction loans, including loans for the construction of single family residential properties, multi-family properties, and commercial projects; residential mortgage loans; home equity loans or lines of credit; consumer loans; and equipment leasing, as well as safe deposit and night depository facilities. In addition, the company offers various fiduciary services; and administers qualified retirement plans, profit sharing and other employee benefit plans, personal trusts, and estates. Further, the company provides annuities, mutual funds, and other investment ser vices through a third party broker-dealer. Additionally, the company offers commercial and personal insurance products through carriers. As of October 21, 2011, it operated approximately 75 banking, mortgage, financial services, and insurance offices in Mississippi, Tennessee, Alabama, and Georgia. The company was founded in 1904 and is based in Tupelo, Mississippi.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Rich Duprey]

    Financial services specialist�Renasant� (NASDAQ: RNST  ) �announced yesterday�its second-quarter dividend of $0.17 per share, the same rate it's paid since 2007.

Tuesday, October 22, 2013

Why Ford's 2014 Escape Will Dominate Competition


Ford's 2014 Escape. Photo: Ford.

If you spend any time on the road, you've probably noticed a huge increase in the number of Ford (NYSE: F  ) Escapes driving around. The Escape is one of Ford's many huge wins in the U.S. market since the Great Recession, and it's been an absolute hit with critics and consumers alike. It's on pace to top 300,000 in vehicle sales this year, which hasn't been done since the late '90s and early 2000s, when Americans were in love with gas-guzzling massive SUVs. This time, with a popular EcoBoost option and MPG that ranges between 22 in the city and 33 on the highway -- depending on which trim and engine you buy -- it's a night-and-day difference between the SUVs of old.

Here are the details on the Ford Escape, why it's winning over consumers, and why happy consumers equal happy investors.

Revving up
As the old saying goes, "if it aint broke, don't fix it" -- and that applies very well to the 2014 Escape. Sales have absolutely taken off and Ford figures this trend will continue.


Information from Automotive News DataCenter. 2013 is projected from sales through May.

The Escape has set monthly records almost all year, including its best March and April months in its entire history.

For the new model year, the Escape has a few small tweaks, including a backup camera and SYNC infotainment system on all trim levels. The price on its premium trim, the Titanium, has been dropped slightly, which is good, because if you load up on options, the Escape can become one of the more expensive models in the SUV segment -- although consumers willingly pay the price in droves.

Through May, the Escape was the best-selling SUV in the U.S. market and was a very impressive 29.7% increase over last year. Edmunds.com -- a great place to review vehicles -- calls it one of their favorite standouts in a segment full of worthy competitors.

Its exterior has an aggressive look to it, with a unique grille and sleek styling. "The Ford Escape combines outstanding fuel economy, versatility and helpful, intuitive technology in a sleek package to make it the 'smarter utility vehicle,'" said Ford group VP Raj Nair in a press release. "This is a hot and competitive segment, and we've added more reasons for customers to consider Escape." 

It's a surprisingly agile ride, and its specially engineered torque converter and revised gear ratios give it a balanced feel in any driving situation. That basically means it delivers incredible handling on pavement as well as off-road -- not that many consumers will be trekking the mountainside with their new ride.

The Escape also has a handful of safety features that have been a hit with consumers. Its Blind Spot Information System, or BLIS, displays an alert in the mirror if a vehicle is detected. It also has a parallel parking feature, with which, at the press of a button, it steers itself into the space while you control the gas and brake.

Also, according to Edmunds.com, in government crash tests the Escape performed well and received four out of five stars for frontal-impact crash protection and five stars for side impact protection.

All the hype isn't limited to the Escape's safety and exterior. The interior is impressive as well.


Interior of Ford's 2014 Fusion. Photo: Ford.

Its dash and interior are made with great materials and have an excellent finished look. When you step in, you really get a sporty and modern impression.

One of the only knocks on the Escape, as pointed out in a recent study by J.D. Power & Associates, is the MyFord Touch system. While the 8-inch display has a nice look, it still has many tweaks to be made for it to quit frustrating consumers. This is to be expected and is often the case with new infotainment technology; expect it to improve over the next couple of years.

Investing takeaway
The Escape is part of a huge push in what Ford calls the "Super Segment." It's basically four segments that Ford expects to surge in the coming years, represented by the Fusion, Focus, Fiesta, and Escape. In this case, a happy consumer equals happy investors, because the Escape brings in a higher transaction price than standard cars, and with premium options, it brings in better margins as well.

Ford is also years ahead of rival General Motors in consolidating its global platforms, which is partially why Ford's margins in North America came in at 11% last quarter compared with GM's 6.2%. The Escape also represents a push by Ford to change consumer perception -- this is no longer the same Ford that produced poor-quality vehicles for years and years. It will take time to change that stereotype, but it is clear that the Escape is the best-selling SUV this year, and Ford's best SUV since the Explorer dominated a decade ago.

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America still has plenty of room for growth with its annual sales rate well below what we saw before the recession and the average age of vehicles at record highs. As our economy continues to grow and access to credit is available, expect sales for Ford's popular vehicles to drive top-line revenues and bottom-line profits -- a huge win for savvy investors.

Ford share sits at a decent price today, nowhere near as undervalued as it was six months ago, but still a great opportunity for investors who are patient to watch its developments improve in Europe and China. I believe we could see Ford's net income improve 50% by late 2015, and that would send the share price soaring -- only time will tell, but Ford deserves to be on any investor watchlist. 

Just how big is Ford's opportunity in China? It's huge -- China is already the world's largest auto market – and it's set to grow even bigger in coming years. A recent Motley Fool report, "2 Automakers to Buy for a Surging Chinese Market", names two global giants poised to reap big gains that could drive big rewards for investors. You can read this report right now for free – just click here for instant access.

Monday, October 21, 2013

Rethinking Retirement: Tips for older job searc…

"Retirement job" seems like an oxymoron. And yet a growing number of Americans say that they plan to continue to work during their retirement years.

Unfortunately, finding employers willing to hire them is not easy.

"The elephant in the workplace is still age bias," says Tim Driver, founder and CEO of RetirementJobs.com. "Because of the Baby Boomers and the lower birth rates of younger people, job supply and demand will eventually favor mature workers. But that is still some time off."

The demand for older workers has only declined during the recession as many of them have lost their jobs. Last year, the unemployment rate of Americans 65 and older was 6.2%, up from 3.1% in 2007, says AARP Public Policy Institute, based on Bureau of Labor Statistics.

"It's not easy for an older unemployed worker to find a job, nor is it easy for an older retiree to return to the workforce," says Sara Rix, senior strategic policy adviser at the AARP Public Policy Institute. "In this economy the employer is going to say, 'I can get two younger workers for the same price as one older worker.'"

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In March, 51% of job seekers 55 and older were unemployed for 27 weeks or longer, compared with 41.7% of those ages 25 to 54, according to the AARP Public Policy Institute's analysis of the federal Current Population Survey.

Many unemployed older Americans who are cash-strapped and need to keep earning money cannot be rehired because they have not kept up their skills. Others want to find a new career that would give them more flexibility and help them stay engaged and make a difference in life.

At least there are a number of programs and websites aimed at helping older job seekers. A program called the Plus 50 Initiative was launched by the American Association of Community Colleges in 2008. "We started doing personal enrichment classes, volunteeri! ng activities and workforce training," says Mary Sue Vickers, director for the Plus 50 Initiative.

But because of the economic collapse, the program decided to focus only on workforce training. "It helps meet the needs of adults 50 and older, and it increases their prospects in high-demand fields," Vickers says.

Dory Brinker, who lives in Brewster, Mass., has decided to go to the Cape Cod Community College to study human services alcohol and drug abuse counseling. She seldom thinks about her age until she is in the classroom and the other students are 50 years younger than she is.

Brinker will turn 70 in October. Over the years the former teacher has also raised three children and owned a nursing school. She always wanted to get a master's degree and Ph.D. "But when the kids were growing up, I got too busy," she says.

Now she works part time at a shelter for families who are recovering from alcohol or drug abuse. And when she finishes the program at the community college, she plans to go on for a college degree. "I love school," she says. "The job means a lot to me and I'm not sitting home bored."

Brinker found out about the shelter through people she knew. But for most older Americans, jobs don't just fall into their laps. "Typically, they have to pound the pavement, or today's equivalent, which is sending out loads and loads of résumés," Rix says.

In part, older workers have a harder time finding work because they are less efficient in networking and using social media. And many employers believe that older workers lack creativity and are generally unwilling to learn new things, says an Urban Institute 2012 report.

Seniors need to better use job-search tools and know what type of employers are most likely to hire older job seekers. The Plus 50 Initiative at community colleges has focused on health care, education and social service because that will increase their job prospects in high-demand fields, Vickers says.

Currently, workers who were 65 and ! older ten! d to work in retail, professions, education and health services, says AARP, based on the 2012 Current Population Survey. Fewer worked for the information sector, which includes telecommunications.

The one industry category where age bias doesn't exist is elder care, Driver says. His firm has launched a separate service where families can find high-quality certified elder care providers.

And to make the job search easier for older Americans, RetirementJobs.com has a certified age-friendly employer program. About 100 major companies have been identified as among the best places for employees above age 50. And AARP has a program for the best employers for workers over 50.

The Plus 50 Incentive can help older Americans improve themselves and make major career changes. For many years, Patricia Zimmer, who lives in St. Louis, was a stay-at-home mom who home-schooled her children. She is now 58, the kids are grown and she is divorced.

Recently Zimmer started the patient care technician program at St. Louis Community College. "It is something that I had wanted to do for 20 years," she says." I'm also doing it out of necessity. But I wanted to do something that would stretch me."

As Baby Boomers approach retirement age they realize that they may be living well into their 80s or 90s. And many of them don't want to spend 30 years sitting on their porch. But they probably don't want to continue doing the same job they've had for 20 or 30 years.

They have a different mindset, and they will be creating a new retirement job world. "We're only a little way into this phenomenon," Driver says. "It is playing itself out before our eyes. And the more it happens, the more culturally accepted it is for someone with gray hair to be in an office cubicle."

Sunday, October 20, 2013

Amazon Birthday Gift Cards Go Social

In conjunction with Facebook (NASDAQ: FB  ) , Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN  ) today introduced its Birthday Gift card service, which gives Facebook users the ability to send birthday wishes along with an Amazon.com birthday gift card to other Facebook users.

Unlike traditional gift cards, Amazon.com's card allows people to initiate the gift card for as little as $1, and the recipient's Facebook friends are able to add contributions and messages until the recipient's birthday. Once the birthday arrives, the Amazon.com Birthday Gift card, along with the attached messages, will appear on the beneficiary's Facebook timeline with links to claim the gift.

Amazon Vice President of Traffic Steve Shure commented, "Birthdays have always been social occasions, and sites like Facebook now make it possible for anyone around the world to send birthday wishes to friends -- with Amazon Birthday Gift, those many individual messages can become a big gift."

link

Saturday, October 19, 2013

16 Oil and Gas Stocks to Sell Now

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This week, the overall grades of 16 Oil and Gas stocks are lower, according to the Portfolio Grader database. Each of these rates a “D” (“sell”) or “F” overall (“strong sell”).

This week, PDC Energy (NASDAQ:) falls to a D (“sell”), worse than last week’s grade of C (“hold”). PDC is an oil and gas company with drilling and production operations in the Rocky Mountains, the Appalachian Basin, and Michigan. In Portfolio Grader’s specific subcategories of Earnings Revisions and Cash Flow, PETD also gets F’s. As of Oct. 18, 2013, 17.3% of outstanding PDC Energy shares were held short. .

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Slipping from a C to a D rating, EOG Resources, Inc. (NYSE:) takes a hit this week. EOG Resources is in the business of the exploration, development, production, and marketing of natural gas and crude oil. The stock gets F’s in Earnings Growth, Earnings Momentum, and Margin Growth. The stock currently has a trailing PE Ratio of 76.90. .

Suncor Energy’s (NYSE:) rating falls this week to an F (“strong sell”), down from last week’s D (“sell”). Suncor Energy is an integrated energy company in Canada. The stock gets F’s in Earnings Momentum and Earnings Surprise. The stock’s trailing PE Ratio is 47.50. .

This is a rough week for Enbridge Energy Partners, L.P. Class A (NYSE:). The company’s rating falls to F from the previous week’s D. Enbridge Energy Partners transports crude oil and natural gas liquids to refineries in the midwestern United States and eastern Canada. The stock receives F’s in Earnings Growth, Earnings Revisions, and Earnings Surprise. Cash Flow and Sales Growth also get F’s. The trailing PE Ratio for the stock is 73.90. .

PVR Partners, L.P. (NYSE:) is having a tough week. The company’s rating falls from a C to a D. Penn Virginia Resource Partners owns and operates a network of natural gas pipelines and processing plants which provide gathering, transportation, compression, processing, dehydration and related services to natural gas producers. The stock currently has a trailing PE Ratio of 442.70. .

This week, Green Plains Renewable Energy, Inc.’s (NASDAQ:) rating worsens to a D from the company’s C rating a week ago. Green Plains Renewable Energy constructs and operates dry mill, fuel-grade ethanol production facilities. The stock gets F’s in Earnings Growth, Earnings Revisions, and Margin Growth. As of Oct. 18, 2013, 14.3% of outstanding Green Plains Renewable Energy, Inc. shares were held short. .

Chevron Corporation (NYSE:) experiences a ratings drop this week, going from last week’s C to a D. Chevron gives management and technological support to international subsidiaries that operate petroleum, chemicals, mining, power generation, and energy services. The stock also gets an F in Sales Growth. .

ONEOK Partners, L.P.’s (NYSE:) rating weakens this week, dropping to a D versus last week’s C. ONEOK Partners is engaged in the gathering, processing, storage, and transportation of natural gas in the United States. The stock also gets an F in Sales Growth. .

The rating of Continental Resources, Inc. (NYSE:) declines this week from a D to an F. Continental Resources explores for, develops, and produces oil and natural gas properties in the United States. The stock receives F’s in Earnings Growth, Earnings Momentum, Cash Flow, and Sales Growth. The stock has a trailing PE Ratio of 31.40. .

Teekay Corporation (NYSE:) earns a D this week, moving down from last week’s grade of C. Teekay is a provider of international crude oil and petroleum product transportation services. The stock gets F’s in Earnings Momentum, Earnings Revisions, and Earnings Surprise. Equity and Cash Flow also get F’s. .

Frontline (NYSE:) gets weaker ratings this week as last week’s D drops to an F. Frontline owns a fleet of very large crude carriers and Suezmax tankers that transport crude oil and oil products between ports. The stock gets F’s in Earnings Revisions, Equity, Cash Flow, and Sales Growth. The stock price has fallen 19.1% over the past month, worse than the 1.7% decrease the S&P 500 has seen over the same period of time. As of Oct. 18, 2013, 13% of outstanding Frontline shares were held short. .

This week, Endeavour International Corporation (NYSE:) drops from a D to an F rating. Endeavour International is an international oil and gas exploration and production company that acquires, explores, and develops energy reserves. The stock gets F’s in Equity and Cash Flow. As of Oct. 18, 2013, 19.2% of outstanding Endeavour International Corporation shares were held short. .

The rating of North European Oil Royalty Trust (NYSE:) declines this week from a D to an F. North European Oil Royalty Trust is involved in gas and oil production. It holds overriding royalty rights in certain concessions or leases in the Federal Republic of Germany. The stock also rates an F in Sales Growth. .

SandRidge Energy, Inc. (NYSE:) is having a tough week. The company’s rating falls from a D to an F. SandRidge Energy explores and produces natural gas and crude oil. The stock receives F’s in Earnings Growth, Earnings Momentum, and Equity. Cash Flow and Margin Growth also get F’s. .

Gevo (NASDAQ:) gets weaker ratings this week as last week’s D drops to an F. Gevo operates as a technology development company for biobutanol. The stock gets F’s in Equity, Cash Flow, and Sales Growth. As of Oct. 18, 2013, 16.7% of outstanding Gevo shares were held short. .

Teekay Offshore Partners L.P. (NYSE:) earns a D this week, moving down from last week’s grade of C. Teekay Offshore Partners LP provides marine transportation and storage services to the offshore oil industry. The stock also gets an F in Sales Growth. .

Louis Navellier’s proprietary Portfolio Grader stock ranking system assesses roughly 5,000 companies every week based on a number of fundamental and quantitative measures. Stocks are given a letter grade based on their results — with A being “strong buy,” and F being “strong sell.” Explore the tool here.

Wednesday, October 16, 2013

Market Volatility Strategy: Collars

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In finance, the term "collar" usually refers to a risk management strategy called a "protective collar"; however, the use of collars for other situations is less publicized. With a little effort and information, traders can use the collar concept to manage risk and, in some cases, increase returns. This article compares protective and bullish collar strategies in terms of how they can help investors manage risk and increase returns.

How Protective Collars Work
This strategy is often used to hedge against the risk of loss on a long stock position or an entire equity portfolio by using index options. It can also be used to hedge interest rate movements by both borrowers and lenders by using caps and floors.

Protective collars are considered a bearish to neutral strategy. The loss in a protective collar is limited, as is the upside.

An equity collar is created by selling an equal number of call options and buying the same number of put options on a long stock position. Call options give purchasers the right, but not the obligation, to purchase the stock at the determined price called strike price. Put options give purchasers the right, but not the obligation, to sell the stock at the strike price. The premium, which is the cost of the options from the call sale, is applied toward the put purchase, thus reducing the overall premium paid for the position. Market pundits recommend this strategy when there is neutrality of the share price following a period when the share price is increasing; it is designed to protect profits rather than increase returns.

For example, let's say that Jack purchased 100 shares of XYZ some time ago for $22 per share. Let's also assume that it is July and that XYZ is currently trading at $30. Considering recent market volatility, Jack is uncertain about the future direction of XYZ shares, so we can say that he is neutral to bearish. If he were truly bearish, he would sell his shares to protect his $8/share profit; but he is not sure, so he is going to hang in there and enter into a collar to hedge his position.

The mechanics of this strategy would be for Jack to purchase one out-of-the-money put contract and sell one out-of-the-money call contract, as each option represents 100 shares of the underlying stock. Jack feels that once November is over there will be less uncertainty in the market, and he would like to collar his position at least through November. Jack finds that XYZ presently has options trading in October and January.

To accomplish his objective, Jack decides on a January option collar. He finds that the January $27.50 put option (meaning a put option expires in January with a strike price of $27.50) is trading at $2.95, and the January $35 call option is trading at $2. Jack's transaction is:

Buy to open, the opening of the long position, one January $27.50 put option at a cost of $295 (premium of $2.95 * 100 shares) Sell to open, the opening of the short position, one January $35 call option for $200 ( premium of $2 * 100 shares) Jack is out of pocket (or has a net debit of) $95 ($200 - $295 = -$95) It's difficult to pinpoint Jack's exact maximum profit and/or loss, as many things could transpire.

Let's look at the three possible outcomes for Jack once January arrives:

XYZ is trading at $50 per share: As Jack is short the January $35 call, it is most likely that his shares were called at $35. With the shares currently trading at $50, he has lost $15 per share from the call option he sold, and his out-of-pocket cost, $95, on the collar. We can say that this is a bad situation for Jack's pocket. However, we cannot forget that Jack purchased his original shares at $22, and they were called (sold) at $35, which gives him a capital gain of $13 per share plus any dividends he earned along the way, minus his out-of-pocket costs on the collar. His total profit from the collar is ($35 - $22) * 100 - $95 = $1,205.
XYZ is trading at $30 per share. In this scenario, neither the put nor the call is in the money. They both expired worthless. So Jack is back where he was in July minus his out-of-pocket costs for the collar.
XYZ is trading at $10 per share. The call option expired worthless. However, Jack's long put has increased in value by at least $17.50 per share (the intrinsic value). He can sell his put and pocket the profit to offset what he has lost on the value of his XYZ shares. He can also actually put the XYZ shares to the put writer and receive $27.50 per share for stock that is currently trading in the market for $10. Jack's strategy would depend on how he feels about the direction of XYZ shares. If he is bullish, he might want to collect his put option profit, hold onto the shares and wait for XYZ to rise back up. If he is bearish, he might want to put the shares to the put writer, take the money and run. As opposed to collaring positions individually, some investors look to index options to protect an entire portfolio. When using index options to hedge a portfolio, the numbers work a bit differently but the concept is the same. You are buying the put to protect profits and selling the call to offset the cost of the put.

Not so commonly discussed are collars designed to manage the type of interest rate exposure present in adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs). This situation involves two groups with opposing risks. The lender runs the risk of interest rates declining and causing a drop in profits. The borrower runs the risk of interest rates increasing, which will increase his or her loan payments.

OTC derivative instruments, which resemble calls and puts, are referred to as caps and floors. Interest rate caps are contracts that set an upper limit on the interest a borrower would pay on a floating-rate loan. Interest rate floors are similar to caps in the way that puts compare to calls: they protect the holder from interest rate declines. End users can trade floors and caps to construct a protective collar, which is similar to what Jack did to protect his investment in XYZ.

The Bullish Collar at Work
The bullish collar also deserves mention in the collars category. The bullish collar involves the simultaneous purchase of an out-of-the-money call option and sale of an out-of-the-money put option. This is an appropriate strategy when one is bullish about the stock but expects a moderately lower stock price and wishes to purchase the shares at that lower price. Being long the call protects a trader from missing out on an unexpected increase in the stock price, with the sale of the put offsetting the cost of the call and possibly facilitating a purchase at the desired lower price.

If Jack is generally bullish on OPQ shares, which are trading at $20, but thinks the price is a little high, he might enter into a bullish collar by buying the January $27.50 call at 73 cents and selling the January $15 put at $1.04. In this case, he would enjoy $1.04 - 73 cents = 31 cents in his pocket from the difference in the premiums.

The possible outcomes at expiration would be:

OPQ above $27.50 at expiration: Jack would exercise his call (or sell the call for a profit, if he did not want to take delivery of the actual shares) and his put would expire worthless. OPQ below $15 at expiration: Jack's short put would be exercised by the buyer and the call would expire worthless. He would be required to purchase the OPQ shares at $15. Because of his initial profit, the difference in the call and put premium, his cost per share would actually be $15 - 31 cents = $14.69. OPQ between $15 and $27.50 at expiration: Both of Jack's options would expire worthless. He would get to keep the small profit he made when he entered into the collar, which is 31 cents per share. The Bottom Line
In summary, these strategies are only two of many that fall under the heading of collars. As financial creativity increases, so do collar strategies. Other types of collar strategies exist and they vary in difficulty, but the two strategies presented here are a good starting point for any trader who is thinking of diving into the world of collar strategies.

Tuesday, October 15, 2013

International Business Machines Corp. (IBM) Q3 Earnings Preview: October Has Been Unkind

International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) plans to release its third quarter financial results after the market closes on Wednesday, October 16, 2013. Management will host a conference call/webcast at 4:30 PM ET to discuss the results and current market conditions.

Wall Street anticipates that IBM will earn $3.96 for the quarter. iStock expects the Dow Jones Index member to beat Wall Street's consensus number. The iEstimate is $3.98, a two-penny upside surprise.

International Business Machines Corporation provides information technology (IT) products and services worldwide. IBM operates in four segments - Global Technology Services, Global Business Services, Software and Systems and Technology.

Investors should be used to EPS that outpaced Wall Street's consensus as big-blue produced bullish surprises 14 of the last 16 quarterly checkups; however, the surprises have hugged analysts' outlook. On average, IBM profits-per-share topped the mark by $0.08, which works out to 2.38%.

The blue-chip tech missed just once in the last four years by -$0.06 and tied the consensus outlook the remaining announcement.

Despite IBM's great EPS success, shareholders haven't fared as well in the three days surrounding the news. Investors reacted redly nine times with losses ranging from -0.40% to -8.40% with and average loss of 3.88%.

That means investors were a bit luckier for the remaining seven announcements. The stock gained anywhere from 1.1% to 7.10%. The typical move was 4.17% higher.

A $10,000 investment three days before the last 16 earnings announcement would have resulted in a $570 loss by selling three days after the news. The numbers say it's a losing proposition.

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Let's take a deeper look to see if we can identify any other trends to help us determine which side of the tape Wall Street is likely to take. DING, DING, DING… we may have found a winner.

Although IBM has delivered three bullish surprises and the above-mentioned tie for the last four October EPS announcements, the stock fell every time; from -0.4% to -6% with an average loss of 3.63%. Trading $10k for October earnings would have lost you $1,450, three days prior/afterwards we previously outlined.

While we do not like October's performance, we didn't find anything too concerning in IMB's second quarter 10-Q. With the exception of selling, general and administrative, costs dropped faster than sales, but inventory did bump up a touch; just not enough to concern iStock, yet.

Overall: International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) recent October earnings driven share price performance would dissuade us from jumping in front of Wednesday's news.

John Mauldin - Sometimes They Ring a Bell


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After last week's discussion of the Affordable Care Act, it would be easy to drift off into all of the negative consequences of the current problems in Washington DC. There's just so much negative energy every time you turn on the TV that it simply drains you. I am well aware of what's happening and why, and yet I still find myself weary simply from the process of trying to follow what's happening. If I feel that way, it's no wonder the polls show that the general public's attitude is "a plague on all your houses." Of course, the snafus always seem to get resolved, but you just wonder how worthwhile all the drama is.

In this week's letter, though, we are going to talk about a different type of energy and a story that I find enormously positive. Three items have come across my screen in the past month that, taken together, truly do signal a major turning point in how energy is discovered, transported, and transformed. And while we'll start with a story that most of us are somewhat aware of, there is an even larger transformation happening that I think argues against the negative research that has come out in the last few years about the reduced potential for growth in the world economy.

Sometimes They Ring a Bell

This week we learned that China has become the #1 oil importer in the world, surpassing the United States. A few weeks ago the Energy Information Agency (EIA) reported that the US is now the largest producer of oil in the world, surpassing Russia. And the port of Houston is now the biggest port in the United States, surpassing New York (think chemicals and energy-related materials). Those of us who pay attention to such things have known these events were going to happen for a long time, but even so, this is a big deal. Let's glance at a few charts to see if we can get a feel for the magnitude of the changes.

First let's look at total world energy ! consumption (charts from http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/ieo/world.cfm). Notice that the vast bulk of the growth is in the developing nations. More than 85% of the projected increase in global energy demand from 2010 to 2040 occurs among the nations outside the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), driven by strong economic growth and expanding populations. In contrast, OECD member countries are, for the most part, already more mature energy consumers, with slower anticipated economic growth and little or no anticipated population growth. Further, the developed nations are becoming much more energy-efficient, as we will see.

Some people see this huge demand for energy as a problem. The large oil fields of the world are clearly "peaking out," and the concern, sometimes quite shrill, is that we will run short of energy in a few years.

The biggest changes, of course, are happening in China and India. Since 1990, energy consumption in both countries as a share of total world energy use has increased significantly; together, they accounted for about 10% of total world energy consumption in 1990 and nearly 24% in 2010. From 2010 to 2040, their combined energy use more than doubles, and they account for 34% of projected total world energy consumption in 2040. I am not sure that China will continue to grow along the same trajectory that it has, but I also feel that it's likely India will grow even faster than projected, so the endpoint may be the same.

And while production from the old oil fields of the world is in fact beginning to slow, we are finding new oil and natural gas at an even more rapid pace than before. For instance, in my backyard, Texas crude oil production, at 2,525 thousand barrels per day (MBPD), was 31% higher year-over-year as of May. North Dakota crude oil production, at 810 MBPD, was 27% higher year-over-year. These two states are driving total US growth in oil production and have helped offset declining production in Alaska an! d the Gul! f of Mexico.

This growth is simply astounding when we look back over similar periods in history. Understand, the oil fields we are talking about have been in production for over 60 years. These are not new discoveries in the strictest sense, but a manifestation of the transformation that is occurring in energy-production technology.

I've written several times about the amazing new production in the Bakken in North Dakota. That is being dwarfed by the potential of other fields. RBC offers the following notes (emphasis mine):

Eagleford Oil Volumes Nearing the Bakken

The Texas Railroad Commission released preliminary 2013 March and revised February Eagleford Shale oil production rates of 529.9 Mbbl/d and 511.4 Mbbl/d, respectively, representing a 77% increase from March 2012 production. February data was revised up from its prior report of 471.2 Mbbl/d. While the trend is correct, we believe actual production in the Eagleford is higher than what is being reported. Well-by-well production data obtained from our proprietary database has current oil production from February nearing 760 Mbbl/d, up 94% from year-over-year levels.Our preliminary March data is not fully updated, but recent month-over-month production has increased on average 5% a month.

The growth of the Eagleford has been impressive and we think it will likely pass aggregate Bakken oil production in the near term. The most recent statistics from the North Dakota Oil and Gas commission have North Dakota production at ~782 Mbbl/d in March, up 35% from March 2012 levels but lagging the growth of the Eagleford on a relative basis.

I've noted in previous letters that there may be as many as four distinct oil- and gas-producing zones layered on top of each other in North Dakota. So the Bakken could be four times as big as we think today. It now looks like similarly explosive growth is happening in the Permian Basin in Texas. In a large rather "new" field called the Spraberry/Wolfcamp, the potential for finding oil i! s simply ! astounding. In fact, Pioneer Natural Resources is suggesting that it is the second biggest oilfield in the world (see table below).

http://www.mauldineconomics.com/economic-analysis

Monday, October 14, 2013

Emerging Trends In Foods And The Companies Poised To Dominate

It has long been said that humans need three things to survive: food, water and shelter.

This truism actually has a lot of merit, which can be seen by experts' increasingly growing concern over food security, availability of clean drinking water and overcrowded cities.

These basic needs not only represent issues that humanity must account for going into the future, but also they represent investment and business opportunities. As would be expected, companies poised to capitalize off of trends in food production and distribution are poised to reap big profits.

It seems like every year or two, there is a new trend in food which takes the Western world by storm. There was the low-carb diet, the fat-free diet and even a diet which focused on low sugar intake. Now, gluten-free seems to be taking on a similar role as these previous trends, which still have their respective adherents.

In many ways, it seems that consumers treat food like fashion - they look for something new on which to fixate every so often. Whether or not consumers have received actual health benefits from following these food trends is debatable.

The very existence of these trends has solidified a market for such specialty food manufacturers and producers as The Hain Celestial Group (NASDAQ: HAIN).

Even coffee has gotten in on the act. Specialty coffee maker Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (NASDAQ: GMCR) has seen impressive growth, thanks to its loyal following of people looking for a quality cup of coffee, which is produced in a sustainable way.

In the industrialized world, the trend in food consumption, and hence food production, is also going more organic and more natural. Companies such as specialty supermarket chain Whole Foods Market (NASDAQ: WFM) are situated to reap the benefits of a populace that is increasingly looking for ways to field a better diet. Whole Foods uses ingredients that are produced using sustainable and efficient farming and processing techniques.

Consumers are no longer satisfied to simply check a package's nutrition label to see how much fat or carbs a food contains. Consumers in the industrialized world now want to know that their produce was grown without the use of pesticides, and that chickens had a meaningful life before being led to the slaughterhouse.

But everyone does not live in the industrialized world. The vast majority of the world's population lives in the undeveloped and developing regions of the planet, where getting a meal for the night is not always guaranteed. In these areas of the world, farmers suffering even a partial loss in crop yield can be devastating to an entire community.

This is why farmers in the developing world are increasingly looking to genetically modified seeds when they plant their major crops. This helps to provide not only larger crop yields, but also to protect against damage from drought, pests and plant sickness. The leader in the field of genetically modified seeds, Monsanto (NYSE: MON) is riding high again after hitting a low in 2010.

Posted-In: food GMO shelter waterCommodities Markets Trading Ideas Best of Benzinga

(c) 2013 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.

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Sunday, October 13, 2013

Suit claims NY Fed fired staffer over Goldman Sachs

ny fed sued bank examiner

The New York Fed said it "categorically rejects any suggestions" it bases personnel decisions on anything other than employee performance.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) A former New York Federal Reserve employee is claiming she was fired after trying to blow the whistle on Wall Street powerhouse Goldman Sachs.

Carmen Segarra worked at the Fed as a frontline bank regulator for less than a year until she was dismissed in May 2012. She claims, in a federal suit filed Thursday, that she had uncovered several examples of serious violations of federal banking rules by Goldman Sachs (GS, Fortune 500).

She says Goldman didn't have conflict of interest policies to address situations where it has money at stake in two different parties in one transaction.

The principal issue detailed in the suit was the $21 billion acquisition of pipeline company El Paso by Kinder Morgan (KMI, Fortune 500), according to the suit. Goldman was advising El Paso on the deal even though it owned 20% of Kinder at the time. That conflict later sparked shareholder lawsuits.

Segarra says that when she told her supervisors that Goldman did not have a conflicts policy, she was told the information could cause the firm to "explode" and customers and consumers to "run off," the suit alleged.

Further, Segarra claims her supervisors ordered her to change her findings to indicate that Goldman was not in violation of banking rules. The suit says refused and was fired three days later.

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In a statement, the Fed said concerns by employees about the banks they oversee "are treated seriously and investigated appropriately with a high degree of independence." It went on to say the Fed "categori! cally rejects any suggestions" that its personnel decisions are not solely based on employee performance.

The suit points out the "history of employees" moving jobs from Goldman to the Federal Reserve. "Top level management for the Federal Reserve worked at Goldman previously," it says.

The suit does not explicitly site who it is referring to. But William Dudley, president of the New York Fed, was a partner, chief economist and managing director at Goldman before he joined the New York Fed in 2007.

Goldman Sachs, which was not named as a defendant in the suit, said it has "no knowledge" of the "internal Fed discussions" or the issues raised by the suit.

"As we have described publicly in our Business Standards Committee report, Goldman Sachs has a comprehensive approach to addressing conflicts through firmwide and divisional policies and infrastructures," the firm said. To top of page